Lieutenant General Tsadkan Gebretensae, Deputy Governor of Tigray Region, has warned that war between Ethiopia and Eritrea is on the brink of breaking out, indicating that military preparations have reached their final stages.
In statements to local media, Tsadkan – who previously served as Chief of Staff of the Ethiopian Defense Forces – confirmed that the conflict could spread from Tigray region to neighboring countries like Sudan, potentially affecting stability in the Red Sea region.
Tsadkan explained that Tigray region is striving to avoid war and promote peace, but available options are rapidly narrowing, making armed conflict a real possibility.
He pointed out that relations between Addis Ababa and Asmara have deteriorated significantly since the signing of the Pretoria Peace Agreement, increasing the likelihood of large-scale military confrontations.
Tsadkan also accused the Eritrean government of pursuing an aggressive expansionist policy, noting that Asmara seeks to exploit neighboring countries, especially Ethiopia and Sudan, to enhance its regional influence. He described Tigray region as the main obstacle to Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki’s ambitions, accusing Eritrea of preparing for a war aimed at ending what President Afwerki considered a frustration of his plans after the Pretoria Agreement.
On the other hand, Tsadkan confirmed that internal divisions within Tigray region may complicate the political landscape, pointing out that some Tigray People’s Liberation Front leaders seek to ally with Isaias Afwerki to protect their interests, despite recognizing the risks that may result from this.
Tsadkan warned that any new conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea could lead to “major geographical and political changes in the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea region,” especially given the international community’s focus on other crises such as the war in Ukraine and turmoil in the Middle East. He called for urgent intervention from the international community and the Ethiopian government to prevent the outbreak of war, stressing that full implementation of the Pretoria Agreement remains the best option.
Tsadkan added that if diplomatic efforts fail to prevent war, ending it as quickly as possible, either militarily or politically, would be in the interest of Tigray and the entire region.
Roots of the conflict
In 2018, after nearly 20 years of stalemate between the two countries, then-rising Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki signed a peace agreement that ended the rift between the two countries and put an end to the state of no peace and no war, for which Abiy Ahmed was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize.
However, according to a wide audience in both countries, there are major drawbacks to this reconciliation, namely that the agreement was personal between the two leaders, without participation from any stakeholders in both countries.
On November 2, 2022, the Ethiopian government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front signed a peace agreement in Pretoria, South Africa, under the auspices of the African Union, thus ending a two-year war in the region that had even spread to other regions such as Amhara and Oromia and approached the capital Addis Ababa.
One of the results of the agreement was that relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea deteriorated and returned to a state of stagnation. Asmara considered it a stab in the back by yesterday’s ally in the war against the Tigray People’s Liberation Front and expressed concern about it, as the Eritreans had expected to be partners in ending the war they had started together.
