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What is the Future of the Peace Agreement in South Sudan?

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Years after the 2018 peace agreement that ended South Sudan’s bloody civil war, the country has returned to heightened tensions and unrest between factions of the ruling system and opposition within the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM).

Last week, President Salva Kiir launched a series of arrests targeting prominent figures, including Petroleum Minister Puot Kang Chol, Peace Minister Stephen Par Kuol, and Deputy Army Chief General Gabriel Duop Lam. The arrests also extended to security personnel allied with Vice President Riek Machar.

Reports from South Sudan indicate that Machar’s residence has been under siege by government forces since last Tuesday.

How the tention began

Conflicting parties continue to exchange accusations over the causes of the renewed confrontation. Early last week, clashes erupted between government forces and fighters from the “White Army” militia in Nasir, Upper Nile State. The White Army is a youth militia primarily composed of members of the Nuer ethnic group, to which Vice President Riek Machar belongs.

According to Human Rights Watch, the violence was triggered by rumors that the government planned to disarm local groups. The organization reported that South Sudanese forces attacked youth militia positions, leading to deadly confrontations that left at least five civilians dead and one UN peacekeeper injured.

Government spokesperson Michael Makuei stated that the arrests were due to legal violations by officials supporting Machar. He accused Machar and his allies of coordinating with the White Army to attack a military garrison near Nasir earlier this month, an allegation Machar has denied.

On Friday, around 27 soldiers were killed during an attack on a UN civilian aircraft attempting to evacuate wounded government troops trapped in Nasir.

Warrning Concerns

The United Nations has expressed alarm over escalating violence in South Sudan and urged all parties to exercise restraint and avoid further conflict. Yasmin Sooka, Chairperson of the UN Commission on Human Rights in South Sudan, warned that renewed conflict could erase years of progress toward peace achieved through difficult efforts. She called for a focus on security and stability rather than confrontation.

Outgoing African Union Commission Chairperson Moussa Faki also appealed for calm and adherence to the ceasefire agreement. He stated that consultations with IGAD and relevant stakeholders are ongoing to ensure de-escalation across all regions.

The new wave of violence has raised local and regional fears of a return to full-scale war. South Sudan previously descended into civil war in 2013 after disagreements between Salva Kiir and Riek Machar. The conflict resulted in over 400,000 deaths and displaced or uprooted at least one million people.

Despite the 2018 peace agreement brokered by IGAD, key provisions such as army unification, drafting a new constitution, organizing elections, and disarmament remain unimplemented. Instead, the parties have largely adhered only to a ceasefire.

With tensions flaring again, the 2018 peace deal is at risk of collapse as its outcomes remain largely unrealized. South Sudan, which gained independence from Sudan in 2011, remains one of the poorest nations despite its oil resources. Corruption and ethnic conflicts continue to threaten stability and development in the young nation.

: Al Jazeera

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