Tensions are spiraling in South Sudan amid escalating militia violence in Upper Nile state in the east of the country, cabinet reshuffles, and the arrests of several senior officials in the capital, Juba.
South Sudan’s President Salva Kiir and First Vice President Riek Machar are at the center of the renewed insecurity.
In recent weeks, they’ve been embroiled in political disagreements that have led to deadly clashes.
The rivals are party to a shaky 2018 peace deal that ended a five-year civil war between forces loyal to Kiir and Machar in which nearly 400,000 people were killed.
How did the latest discord come about?
Kiir dismissed several key government officials in February as part of a cabinet reshuffle, some of whom “were viewed by Riek Machar as violating the 2018 peace agreement,” explained Daniel Akech, a South Sudan analyst at the International Crisis Group, a nongovernmental conflict prevention organization.
“And in western Bahr al-Ghazal, there were some violence outbreaks in protest to these changes that the president made without consulting the vice president,” Akech added, referring to a region in the northwest of the country.
According to Akech, Kiir’s order for the redeployment of forces in some areas triggered the violence in areas such as Nasir in Upper Nile, where a United Nations helicopter attempting to rescue soldiers from the region was attacked and a UN crew member and South Sudanese general killed.
The UN-affiliated Radio Miraya reported that the so-called White Army, a loose band of armed youths from the same ethnic Nuer community as Machar, was suspected of involvement in the aircraft attack.
The embassies of France, Canada, the Netherlands, Germany and Norway, along with other Western embassies, condemned the attack on the UN helicopter.
The US Embassy in South Sudan has since ordered the departure of non-emergency US government employees from the country.
“Armed conflict is ongoing and includes fighting between various political and ethnic groups. Weapons are readily available to the population,” a US travel advisory reads.
Mediators and Uganda step in
On March 12, the region’s Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), which is mandated to deal with peace and security issues in South Sudan, convened a summit to discuss the latest development.
Meanwhile, leading IGAD member Uganda this week deployed special forces to neighboring South Sudan.
“As of 2 days ago, our Special Forces units entered Juba to secure it,” the country’s army chief Muhoozi Kainerugaba said in a series of posts on social media platform X.
“We the UPDF [Ugandan military], only recognize one President of South Sudan H.E. Salva Kiir … any move against him is a declaration of war against Uganda,” he said. Kiir and Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni are allies, and Museveni has previously intervened militarily on the side of Kiir in South Sudan.
Kiir’s armed forces are stationed in the counties that neighbor Juba while armed forces linked to Machar and the opposition are also stationed in so-called containment sites in areas nearby, Akech told DW.
“So, if there is any aggressive move between the two forces, that could be a potential area. But so far things have remained calm but tense,” he said.
UN is warning over a ‘regression’
On March 8, Yasmin Sooka, chair of the United Nations Commission on Human Rights in South Sudan issued a stern statement.
“South Sudan should be moving forward, implementing the provisions of the peace agreement, strengthening institutions, and building a foundation for democracy,” the statement read. “Instead, we are witnessing an alarming regression that could erase years of hard-won progress.”
The commission also noted that South Sudan has returned “to the reckless power struggles that have devastated the country in the past.”
In its most recent report on the country, the commission said a major human rights crisis has taken hold, more than half the population are facing acute food insecurity while 2 million South Sudanese are displaced internally and 2.28 million have sought refuge in neighboring countries.
In recent days, local civil society groups, women-led organizations and Sudan’s church leaders have been calling for political dialogue to prevent further hostilities.
Experts say the volatile leadership duo in Juba is not helping the overall situation. “There are lots of unresolved tensions between the two leaders, dating back to the time of the civil war…some of these conflict episodes that we are seeing now are connected to those wounds,” said Akech.
The two have yet to establish trust, agree on a constitution and implement other key provisions of the peace deal. “It’s been a relationship with lots of suspicions and distrust. So, I don’t expect, I don’t count on them resolving that relationship into a positive relationship. It’s a very hostile relationship,” the analyst told DW.
As a result, South Sudan has no agreed constitution, and a unified armed forces is yet to materialize.
Is full-scale civil war inevitable?
“Each leader has his own armed forces all over the country, and that is the problem,” Akech. Machar has the SPLA-IO opposition forces.
International Crisis Group researchers say international assessments indicate a rapidly deteriorating security situation and the possibility of renewed civil war. It has warned of the possibility that White Army militias could take control of Nasir and other strategic parts of South Sudan and spillover into Sudan to the north.
There’s also the ongoing Sudan crisis. “The kind of tensions we are seeing now has alot to do with the spillover of war in Sudan,” according to Akech. South Sudan gained independence from Sudan in June 2011. Juba relies on petrodollars from oil transported via Sudan.
Over the past few days, Kiir has consulted with his counterparts in Sudan and Somalia.
It would be unwise to suggest that full-scale violence is inevitable in South Sudan now, according to Abiol Lual Deng, a South Sudanese-American political scientist.
“When we talk about South Sudan and violence, I am pained to say it’s unfortunately been a country in which there’s always been low level violence going on,” she told DW.
The extent to which the international community can exert pressure is really what is at stake in the country wiith a young population that doesn’t necessary share ethnic divisions of its leaders.
Deng believes that the extent to which the international community can exert pressure on warring sides is what is at stake.
“I do think the international community will coalesce around sending messages to [Kiir and Machar] discreetly, and also publically, to stop,” she said.
Eshete Bekele and Cai Nebe contributed reporting
Edited by: Keith Walker
